Will R K Nagar election be the political nemesis of Sasikala clan?

Beleaguered by arrests, convictions, IT raids and allegations of corruption, over the past few months the Sasikala clan, once infamous for pulling the strings of the AIADMK seems to be on a sticky political wicket now. The recent jolt to the AIADMK dissident faction led by Sasikala’s nephew T T V Dhinakaran, has been the Commission’s decision to allot the ‘two leaves’ symbol to the united faction of the AIADMK.
The IT raids on the properties of the family, however, may not be a deterrent for the Dhinakaran group to repeat its strategy of bribing voters in the RK Nagar polls.
While Sasikala will have to serve at least two years more in the Bengaluru prison, many members of the family facing cases filed under The Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) and by the Enforcement Directorate will be under strict legal purview. More IT raids on the family’s properties are expected as the department has said that a few shell companies that have been detected will soon be under its scanner.
At this juncture, winning the RK Nagar bypoll looks like the family’s sole option to reclaim its political influence. Given the history of by-elections in the state, where there has been sheer display of money and muscle power by the ruling party, the question is will Dhinakaran, risk the ignominy of losing. Or will he take the battle to the EPS camp and keep the pot boiling?
In politics, visibility and leading from the front are two factors vital for a party. It is especially important for Dhinakaran’s faction which has already lost the ‘two leaves’ symbol to the EPS-OPS camp. Dhinakaran may be forced to take the plunge, to keep up the morale of his flock and continue the battle.
The IT raids on the properties of the family, however, may not be a deterrent for the Dhinakaran group to repeat its strategy of bribing voters in the RK Nagar polls.
But still a win for the faction seems impossible. Dhinakaran is now left with a small number of 18 disqualified legislators which in turn has little support from the public due to the disrepute associated with the Sasikala family. The family’s strategy to bring down the government by forcing the EPS group to deal with fresh elections was hindered with the disqualification of 18 MLAs.
With a BJP-AIADMK alliance likely for the next polls, the cup of woes for the Sasikala clan is full as it would have to contend with two governments which are baying for its blood.
However, a defeat in the election may not result in the Sasikala family quitting the political scene altogether. One can expect them to fight it out as they will need political power to safeguard their properties and assets. The clan could use desperate means to try and be a force to reckon with, even if it doesn’t register electoral success.
The family members could still be of nuisance value to the AIADMK, just as rebels put up by Karunanidhi’s estranged son M K Alagiri had hurt the DMK in the 2001 Assembly elections. In a closely-fought Assembly election, the Dhinakaran faction may cause damage to the EPS group by dividing the party’s votes.
Not exactly on the top of the popularity chart, the EPS group has to fight with both the powerful DMK and the Dhinakaran faction which could deliver some blows at the electoral battlefield, especially in the powerful thevar-belt in southern TN.
The growing rift between followers of OPS and EPS will give more fodder to the Dhinakaran group to project the AIADMK as a body of squabbling leaders, jostling for power and pelf. That image could hurt the AIADMK, even if Dhinakaran is left licking the wounds.
When Sasikala returns to Chennai after her prison term, there would be a fresh round of fireworks, demanding a renewed test of loyalty in the AIADMK camp, and arousing yet another rash of infighting and groupism.